XoverO

Research — XoverO

Research

Seven pieces this fall, building to a case study in December.

Notes

No. 04Read

Talent or scheme

A $146M payroll just swept a $339M one. Nine seasons of college spending data says the same thing: this was never a coaching question.
No. 03Read

The ceiling below the money

A $50 million ceiling binds only the programs that can reach it. Two tiers down, the part of the bill that matters isn't the cap — it's that keeping a player becomes its own budget line.
No. 02Read

What a grade cannot tell you

A grade scores how a player did the job he was handed. It can't tell you whether it was the right job. In one game, 11 of 18 lost snaps couldn't be read without the call.
No. 01Read

The bet nobody prices

Develop or replace is a capital allocation decision, made weekly and priced never. Three claims specific enough to be wrong.

This fall

Sep 10The bet nobody pricesRead
Sep 24What a grade cannot tell youRead
Oct 8The ceiling below the moneyRead
Oct 19Talent or schemeRead
Nov 2The constrained-program caseScheduled
Nov 16Coordinators cannot see themselvesScheduled
Dec 10The case studyScheduled

Earlier work

What Close Games Measure4,967 close games, and a league of coins produces the same distribution. Coaches are fired over this. The Nebraska MarginThe largest production-to-wins gap in the panel, and why that is less damning than it sounds. The Cheap-League EffectThe conferences that spend least beat the model most. A finding about the model before it is one about the leagues.

From a nine-season panel of 131 FBS programs. Publishing alongside the series.