Moneyball

Almost everything being asserted about college football spending and roster value is untestable with public data. This is where the evidence lives.

STATUS — in build.

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What's established

Roster turnover broke in 2021, not 2019. It was never the portal. It was the money attached to it.
Group of Five turnover held near 36% for a decade and now sits at 49%.
Spending does not predict production. Nine seasons, 131 FBS programs, null throughout.
Close-game records are near-random.

What this page is

Aggregate research. Findings about programs, conferences and levels, built from public data: spending, roster turnover, results.
No one rated. No individual player is identified, and no program is rated or ranked on this page.
Public sources only. Federal filings, public rosters and public play-by-play. Nothing behind a commercial-use restriction is republished here.
Not NIL figures. No reported, leaked or estimated pay for any player.
Player-level work is private. Ratings of individual players sit behind the sign-in and are not published.

Sources

EADA: Federal Equity in Athletics filings.
CFBD: Play-level and season-level efficiency, FBS and FCS.
CFBD rosters: Roster turnover: each season's roster matched to the year before on player ID, Group of Five programs.
Open records: State public-records requests.

Method goes up alongside each result so the number can be argued with.

Moneyball — XoverO